Graham Allison Analyzes the “Thucydides Trap”


Since 2010, Rei Umekubo has been Managing Partner for Pilot Capital Investments, LLC in
Los Angeles, California. In his spare time, Rei Umekubo is a board member of the Los Angeles World Affairs Council. 

On June 5, 2017, the Los Angeles World Affairs Council hosted a breakfast at the California Club where Graham Allison delivered a talk titled “Can the US Avoid War with China? The Mysterious "Thucydides Trap.”” As a special advisor to the Secretary of Defense during the Reagan Administration and later assistant secretary of defense in President Clinton’s first term, Allison has 30 years of experience in analyzing US defense and security policy.

The “Thucydides Trap” refers to the Greek historian Thucydides who argued that the 5th-century rise of Athens threatened the established power of Sparta to the point that war became inevitable. The current analogy is the rise of China threatening the current American based world order, and Allison and his team of researchers studied 16 similar cases of the last 500 years. 

They concluded that war resulted in 12 of the 16 cases, and the lessons from the four peaceful resolutions can be implemented in today’s world to avoid a costly and unnecessary armed conflict between the US and China.

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